Bankroll Calculator Sports Betting
Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign, and represent the money you need to risk to win $100. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. You need to risk $140 to win $100 on the Packers. If they win, you profit $100 and get your original $140 back. Welcome to the Kelly Criterion calculator. We have built all the tools you need to make your sports betting (and specifically your knowledge of the Kelly Criterion) better! Below we have a Kelly Criterion calculator and some more information on the Kelly Criterion in general.
- Bankroll Calculator Sports Betting Odds
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- Sports Betting Bankroll Calculator
It comes as a surprise to many bettors that you only need to win 53% of your against the spread wagers at -110 odds (bet $110 to win $100) to be a profitable sports bettor. But the math checks out; if you go 53-47 in 100 picks, your $5,300 in winnings (53 x $100) would offset your $5,170 in losses (47 x $110) for a profit of $130. So why, then, are so many sports bettors constantly heading back to the cashier for another deposit? The main culprit is bankroll management.
An old gambling axiom states that “you always lose your biggest bet”. The theory behind this statement being that if you keep adding more and more money to your bet size as you ride a hot streak, the only way for that trend to end is with one big loss in the end.
Fortunately, there is another way. Instead of chasing losses or regularly betting outside of your means, you can put a bankroll management plan in place. This will give you the chance to overcome the variance of sports betting. This will help turn your hobby into a profitable one.
What does Variance have to do with Bankroll Management?
Before we get into bankroll management strategies, it is important to understand why they are so important. To do this, we must consider the role that variance plays in sports betting.
When a fair coin is flipped, it has a 50% chance of landing on heads and a 50% chance of landing on tails. Because we know this, we can project that the expected result of 10 straight coin flips will be five heads and five tails. Each will hit 50% of the time.
But often times, in just 10 flips, the numbers will not work out that way. Sometimes the coin will land on heads seven out of ten times, or tails eight out of ten times. This is a matter of variance. The larger the sample size, the closer we can expect the distribution of coin flips that land on heads and tails to be right around 50%. One billion flips will level out to around 50/50, but four flips could be 100% heads and 0% tails.
The same is true of sports betting. Let’s say that you are a profitable basketball handicapper, handicapping games against the spread at a rate of 54% winners. In the long run, this is enough to beat the book and turn a profit. If you made 10,000 wagers of $110 to win $100 and went 540-460, you would have a profit of $3,400.
What if you made only five wagers? Assuming your average win rate, the odds of winning all five would be .54 x .54 x .54 x .54 x .54 = .0459, or 4.6%. Your odds of losing all five would be .46 x .46 x .46 x .46 x .46 = .0205, or 2.1%. In other words, in every set of five games, you’d have a roughly 1 in 20 chance of winning five straight games. You also have a 1 in 50 chance of losing five straight.
One in 50 may not sound like many. But on the road to 10,000 wagers, it figures to happen about 40 times. And what if one of those 40 times happens to come right at the beginning of your journey, with you betting a large amount of your bankroll on every game?
And this is just accounting for an 0-5 slump. A 1-4 slump or even a couple of 2-3 slumps can be equally crippling. Even the best handicappers in the world are mathematically certain to hit one of these cold streaks; and if you bet recklessly during one, it could wipe out your account.
What Unit Size should You Set?
It is tempting to keep raising the stakes on your wagers throughout a season. If you are on a winning streak, you want to try to ride that hot streak with larger and larger wins. If you are on a cold streak, it is tempting to chase your losses with bigger bets to try to win your money back. Both of these strategies are dangerous in the long run. It could eventually lead to ruin when a cold streak strikes.
For this reason, the most responsible thing to do is to set a unit size. This will be your standard bet size and it will be based on your sports betting bankroll.
That is the first step; there is no bankroll management without establishing a bankroll. Ideally, you want to select an amount you can afford to put at risk safely without fear of losing it. This will allow you to make clear decisions and stay focused on the games. Then, you won’t have to worry about a losing streak affecting your livelihood. Keep an account that is just for sports betting separate from the money you use to pay your bills. This account can fluctuate up and down without causing you any concern.
Once that amount is established, you need to decide on a unit size. A super conservative bettor might want to pick a unit size as low as 2-5%. For example, with a $1000 deposit, you could choose a unit size from $20 (2%) to $50 (5%). The 2% unit size is excessively safe, allowing you a buffer zone of a net loss of nearly 50 bets before going broke. If you were to start the new college basketball season off with a disastrous 1-9 record betting $22 to win $20 on each game, you’d be out $178; a major setback, but only 17.8% of your total investment. On the other hand, at 5% and bets of $55 to win $50, you’d have been down $445, or 44.5% of your investment.
In either case, however, you are still very much alive. You have time to turn things around when a nice hot streak rolls around. Had you chosen a unit size of 20% and been betting $220 to win $200, this cold streak would have quickly burned through your entire $1,000 deposit.
Of course, the safer you play it when selecting a unit size, the less money you stand to make on your winning streaks, too. You need to find the right balance of risk to reward for you. If you are happy with small wagers and just enjoy having a little something on the game to root for, a small unit size like 2% or 3% of your bankroll might be for you. But if you want the chance at bigger earnings and are willing to take the risk, you might be happier at 10% to 15%. This can always be adjusted later if your bankroll management preferences change.
How do You put Your Units to Use?
Once you establish a unit size, use it as your base for every bet that you make. More importantly, stick to it. Because you chose a unit size that you were comfortable with, it should be easy to stick to. When betting on a standard line game, just use your standard unit size.
You can make modifications to your sizing based on the situation. If you are betting on a parlay that comes at a higher risk than most standard plays, consider betting just half of a unit on it instead of a full unit. On the other hand, if you have handicapped a particular game that is your favorite on the board, use two units on it. Try not to put too much of your bankroll on any one play. It is too risky. Also, don’t feel like you have to limit yourself to just one unit on your favorite plays.
Units can be adjusted based on bankroll milestones, too. For example, you decided on a unit size of 10% of your total bankroll and deposited $1,000. This makes your average bet size $110 to win $100. You could set milestones to reassess your unit size at $500 and $1,500. If you get to $1,500 with a series of wins, you could reset your unit size to 10% of your new total bankroll, which is $165 to win $150.
Conversely, if you fall to $500, you could extend your bankroll by resetting the 10% to $55 to win $50. This method will keep your unit size accurate based on whatever your bankroll happens to be.
You can also adjust your unit size based on what type of bettor you are. If you enjoy betting on parlays and long shots that are harder to hit, pick a smaller unit size since you may go longer stretches of time without a win during a cold streak. If you tend to bet on heavy favorites, you can pick a larger unit size since your winning percentage will be higher. This makes cold streaks less likely.
Bankroll Calculator Sports Betting Odds
The important thing is that you are thinking about bankroll management. This is regardless of what you settle on as your preferred unit size and betting style. Survival is a big part of the long-term battle. If you can stay within your means, you can ride out that cold streak until the hot streak comes and turns things back around.
Sports betting whether it is online, or in person at the casino or sportsbook, is no game for the faint of heart. Stick at it for any length of time and you will experience some adrenaline pumping highs and some shirt losing lows. Like all things, there is a learning curve for any new sports bettor, possibly a steep one. So exactly how much money should a beginning sports bettor begin with?
The initial sports betting bankroll, depends on your disposable income, but should be low. Eg. $200. Enough to qualify for some decent sportsbook promotions to boost your bankroll, but not break you. The first deposit is about learning rather than winning. Managing tthe bankroll is the key.
How to Decide on Your Betting Bankroll Amount.
Deciding on the amount of money you should invest at your first deposit is actually step two for a sports betting beginner. Step one is deciphering why you want to bet in the first place. Assuming you have given this much thought and you are still eager to get involved in the great game of wagering, then step two is where you are at!
Your betting bankroll is dependent on level of disposable income. If you have above average means then your deposit may in fact be quite high compared to others. In this article we will assume an average income from an average household and work on an initial deposit size of $200.
Two Questions to Ask Yourself
1. Do you have cash to spare?
Do not bet with money you don’t have (credit) or money that your household needs for day to day expenses.
2. Can you deposit today, or do you need to put together a savings plan to build your bank?
It is beneficial to wait until you have a decent betting bank to allow you to ride some of the ups and downs. Wait until you have that money before depositing.
The amount you decide on is entirely a personal decision, but remember,it is unusual that a first time sports bettor takes the bookmakers down. The learning that comes with placing bets, understanding bet types and observing how odds fluctuate all takes time to sink in. Realistically the first few weeks of betting is about survival with low expectation of large profits. They may come, just don’t be disheartened if they don’t. For that reason keep your first deposit fairly low.
The Sign Up/First Deposit Promotions
Any sportsbook worth its salt will offer enticing first deposit/sign up bonuses or promotions. As a first time bettor your business is important to them and they compete hard to get it. This is something you need to take advantage of and capitalise on. The reason the first deposit should be somewhere in the vicinity of $200 is that this makes the most use of the sportsbooks first deposit promotions without risking you over capitalising right off the bat.
A few examples of some classic sign-up or first deposit bonuses are as follows:
- Matched first deposit in bonus bets up to $200
- Deposit $200, bet with $500
- 50% matched bonus up to $200
- Cashback on first bet up to $200
As a first time bettor if you can grab one of these bonuses you are effectively buying yourself more ‘learning time’. It is better to bet with the bookmakers money that your own!
Look out for the sign-up bonuses that allow you to split the bonus bets up into smaller amounts. This would mean a $100 bonus bet could be split into 5 x $20 bets, giving you more chance to spread the bets across many markets and mitigate your risk.
Be aware that bonus bets only payout the profits from the bet and don’t return the original stake. That means they really need to be turned over at better than even money (and the bet needs to win!) to see the true value realised in your account. For example a $100 bonus bet placed on a -110 market will return just the profit of $91.A nice return but less than the $100 it seemed like you had in the first place. It is still very much worth your while gaining these free bets, just know what their true value really is.
Bonus tip: If you have a buddy or just know someone who is already with a sportsbook that you would like to join, have him/her check out whether they can ‘refer you’. On top of your sign up bonus, they may be able to grab for themselves a handy little bonus bet also. Share the love!
Managing Your First Bankroll
Deciding on a first deposit amount and then maximising the benefits of promotions is a great start to the betting journey. Now it is time to bet!
A beginning bettor should switch their mindset so that they don’t see the money in their account as a dollar figure but instead the amount of betting opportunities they have in front of them. Much like the way a poker player will look at their chip stack and count how many big blinds they have (the minimum cost to play) to establish their position in the game. Remember the first goal of betting for a beginner is don’t go broke and being aware of how many bets you have left at your disposal is fundamental to staying solvent.
Let’s look at an account with an initial deposit of $200. Ignoring any promotional bonuses or free bets the bettor effectively has a bankroll of 20 X $10 bets. This means the bettor would have to lose 20 bets of that size consecutively to go broke, a useful buffer. The 20 bets also allows the bettor to have a few bets pending at the one time. For example on a Wednesday night mid season in the NBA, where numerous games are played across the evening, a bettor may want three separate bets in play. The account needs to be able to accommodate this.
The 20 bets is a great way to measure success for a beginning sports bettor. It allows them to assess quickly if they are hanging tough against the sportsbooks or being ground backwards, in which case changes to betting strategy may need to be made. 20 bets means each bet represents 5% of the bettor’s bankroll. This leads us to bet sizing.
Bet Sizing for Beginners
Knowing how many bets a beginning sports bettor has available to them is critical in helping them decide how much to wager on a particular market. This seems counterintuitive, if the bettor knows how many bets they have, wouldn’t they just bet that amount every time (eg. $10 per bet) until they either profit or go broke? Proper bet sizing is not as straightforward as it seems but done correctly it can make enormous improvements to a beginning bettors profitability.
No two bets are the same! People bet on particular markets for many reasons. Sometimes they are supremely confident on the outcome and other times they feel less certain but are still willing to wager on it. This is the difference between a good bet and a great bet.
It does not take much common sense to realise that a bettor should be willing to wager more on a great bet than a good bet. Put simply a great bet is when the odds framed by a bookmaker are seemingly much higher than the bettor believes the true probability of the bet winning. Another word for this is value.
For example the great bet may appear in a sport that the bettor follows intently and therefore are across many of the nuances that may affect the result, let’s say the NFL. They notice the New England Patriots are giving away 2.5 points against the spread (-2.5). The bettor feels its should be more like -6.5. A huge discrepancy. This is the type of bet where the gambler may be willing to stake more than one of the ‘20 bets’. Perhaps they decide this is a two bet market. In the case of $10 bets the bettor may stake $20. Higher risk higher reward.
On the other hand a beginning bettor may be faced with a bet they deem to be ‘good’ but they aren’t as certain as they could as the previous example so it’s not ‘great’. This might occur when the bettor is placing a bet on a sport being played abroad. Their knowledge of the ins and outs of the event may be limited but they want to get into the game regardless. At this point the bettor needs to decide if they should wager a whole bet or maybe a halve bet. They can just as easily halve the normal bet size to $5, have some skin in the game but not be overexposed to the risk. Maybe over time by betting on this sport they become more knowledgeable and increase their bet size accordingly.
It is important here to not err too much on the side of caution. Betting is still about winning money and the ‘good bet’ may very well win in which case if you stake small you will win small and perhaps leave some profits on the table. Each bettor has their own risk appetite so there is no one size fits all approach.
Just remember this bet size advice:
- All bets should not be the same. You have strengths and weakness across many sports.
- Decide on how confident you are in the bet.
- Analyse the odds to spot potential value.
- Adjust your bet size accordingy within the 20 bets framework.
How to Invest Sports Betting Profits
One of the more exciting challenges for all beginning sports bettors is what to do if and when you begin to turn a profit. The temptation is always there to withdraw winnings and blissfully spend them on whatever it is you want to. There is nothing wrong with this approach, and maybe that is the whole reason you decided to take on sports betting in the first place. On the other hand turning a profit and watching your initial bankroll grow opens up a world of opportunity.
Here are some of the better options:
1. Build a Buffer
The ‘20’ bets theory discussed earlier in this article really is an approach for a beginning bettor. Many more sophisticated gamblers will choose to keep a much bigger buffer in their betting account. Maybe as high as 50 bets. Essentially that would mean a standard size bet represents only 2% of their bankroll giving them a long time horizon with which to ride out some down times. If you are consistently turning a profit then build the buffer!
2. Increase Bet Sizing
Bankroll Calculator Sports Betting Calculator
If a bettor is skilled enough to build their bankroll up with an increased buffer then they have the option of increasing their standard bet size to lift their exposure to the market. The thought behind this is that if they continue to consistently turn a nice percentage profit then the actual dollar amount per profitable bet increases, accelerating the bankroll growth. Some see this as a risky move or perhaps being greedy, others see it as good bankroll management. Each to their on and every bettor needs to decide what is the best fit for them.
3. Take on the Futures Market
With the bankroll on the build and a nice buffer behind them many bettors will start to look at futures markets for betting opportunities. Futures markets have longer time horizons and money is tied up in them for week and sometimes months. That may not suit a beginning bettor with a small bankroll but if surplus cash appears then check out these markets. Some futures bets can be seen as reasonably safe (nothing is certain), like a strong divisional favorite in the NFL. Bettors may look to ‘tie up’ multiple standard bets on a bet like that, viewing it as a way to earn ‘interest’ on money that would otherwise be sitting idle in the account. Essentially putting their money to work!
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4. Diversify
A tried and true method of many successful bettors is too take profits from betting, an inherently risky and time intensive way to make money, and move them to more passive and safer investments. Of course where this money goes is somewhat dependent on how much money you have available to withdraw. Assuming as a beginning bettor this amount is still relatively small, withdrawing the some profit and placing it in a high interest savings account is not the worst option. The money is safe, available to withdraw should your betting bankroll need a boost, and earning interest which compounds over time. If over time that money is left untouched or even added to the bettor may be able to move it out of that account into another investment class with some higher growth potential, like stocks.
Get in the Game!
Sports Betting Bankroll Calculator
Sports betting may not be for everyone but it is for anyone. With some forethought and a disciplined strategy, a beginner can avoid the disaster and pain of going broke, enjoy hours of thrills and entertainment and with a stroke of luck and a dose of skill bank some profit! Good luck!