4/6/2022»»Wednesday
4/6/2022

The WBC and WBA super middleweight titles are up for grabs when Canelo Alvarez and Avni Yildirim meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The fight card is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on DAZN, with the title bout set to begin around 10 p.m. ET. Below, we break down the Canelo-Yildirim odds, with boxing picks and predictions.

The rematch between Gennady Golovkin and Canelo Alvarez is on. The location is still being decided but the date has been set in stone: Cinco de Mayo (a.k.a. Enough about the atrocious 118-110 scorecard from the first fight, or the sleazy negotiation tactics of Golden Boy Promotions. What’s important is that this rematch got made and we now get to see two of the greatest. It’s the fight boxing fans have been waiting months for Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin stage a rematch of their controversial draw from last year. They do battle Saturday night on pay-per-view from Las Vegas for Golovkin’s WBA/WBC middleweight titles. Golovkin comes in as the boxing odds favorite. Canelo vs Golovkin 2 Odds & Expert Prediction Boxing isn’t just a sport.

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Canelo vs. Yildirim: Fight odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

Canelo Alvarez: -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100) Avni Yildirim: +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)

Alvares has an implied win probability of 98.04% with the -5000 money line odds. Those odds can be expressed as a fraction of 1/50 or decimal of 1.02.

Canelo vs. Yildirim: Tale of the tape

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez

Canelo (54-1-2, 36 KOs) heads to South Florida as the overwhelming favorite against the Turkish challenger. He recorded an 11th-round knockout against Sergey Kovalev Nov. 2, 2019, and beat Callum Smith by unanimous decision Dec. 19, 2020.

Canelo Vs Golovkin 2 Odds

He hasn’t lost in 13 straight bouts (12-0-1) since a majority-decision setback to Floyd Mayweather Sept. 14, 2013, and he has six KO/TKOs during the span with four unanimous-decision wins, a majority-decision, a split-decision and a split draw against Gennadiy Golovkin. “Cinnamon” weighed in at 167.6 pounds, 0.4 pounds below the limit.

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Avni Yildirim

Yildirim (21-2, 12 KOs) is looking to stun the world, a la Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson. He suffered a technical-decision loss to Anthony Dirrell Feb. 23, 2019, losing out on a chance at the then-vacant WBC strap. Like Canelo, “Mr. Robot” weighed in at 167.6 pound.

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Canelo vs. Yildirim: Odds, predictions and picks

There is no way to justify risking 50 times your potential return on Canelo (-5000) on the 3-way line. You’ll have to get really specific to make a profit.

You cannot even bet on a fight finish type, as Canelo by KO/TKO probably wouldn’t be a very good value anyway.

Instead, look to round group betting for a better play. If you are a little more adventurous, taking Round Group Betting 1, target ROUNDS 5-6 (+350) and ROUNDS 7-8 (+600) for the win by either fighter. If the fight ends anywhere from Rounds 5 through 8, you’ll be well ahead, although you will lose one end.

Or you could just go with Round Group Betting 3, and make a bet on ROUNDS 5-8 (+185) to nearly double up, and you need not pick a fight winner.

If you’re less adventurous, you could cross your fingers and look to Round Group Betting 4, taking fight finish in ROUNDS 7-12 (+250).

Lastly, it’s worth a small-unit play taking SAUL ALVAREZ TO WIN AFTER BEING KNOCKED DOWN (+1000). Perhaps Yildirim catches him with a surprise shot early. Canelo is going to win, so why not give it a try? Just don’t get crazy.

If you want some action on this bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Boxing Junkie:

The genesis of a boxing superstarAlvarez passing on genuine challenges in pursuit of titles

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  • Canelo vs Golovkin 2 odds: Should betting lines be much wider for rematch?
Hot
Lee ClevelandUpdated

So, you think middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin owned Canelo Alvarez last month despite the verdict?
And you expect Golovkin to be a much stronger favorite in the rematch?

… Not so fast.
Canelo vs Golovkin 1 odds
Prior to September's bout, Golovkin was the slight favorite, hovering around -151. Alvarez was the underdog at roughly +131.
Close betting lines.
However, although action-packed and competitive, some will assert the odds were closer than the fight itself.
Canelo vs GGG 2 odds (as of Oct 2017)
Early rematch odds label the champion as the favorite again at approximately -165 while Canelo is sitting around +135.

Should betting lines be closer for Canelo vs GGG 2? Should they be wider? Or are the betting lines well-placed?
While some will insist the rematch odds should be significantly wider in Golovkin's favor, the intangibles tell us otherwise.
The onus is on Golovkin... Again
As we projected prior to last month's meeting, a fight that was remotely close would favor Canelo, the A-side fighter. In high-profile boxing, the A-side fighter wins a competitive bout 4 of 5 times. (There’s no fixing. That’s simply how it is)

Given Canelo vs GGG was officially a draw, it’s not difficult to see that Alvarez enjoyed the benefit of the doubt in difficult-to-score rounds on judges' cards. Thus, as the A-side fighter, Alvarez entered the bout with a small, unofficial scoring advantage and will do so again in the rematch.
To beat a more popular foe on the big stage, the other guy must usually score a knockout or win on points very comfortably ie. Rigondeaux vs Donaire (2012) or, more recently, Garcia vs Broner.
The first fight - and boxing history - suggest that if Golovkin doesn't score a knockout or clearly and decisively separate himself from Canelo, we are likely to see one of the following results (in order of probability) for the rematch:

1) A wide or narrow Canelo win
2) Another draw
3) A split or majority decision for GGG
Hence, even if Golovkin wins 117-111 on most experts' cards, he'll, at best, probably be awarded a narrow (or split) decision by the judges.

It would behoove Gennady to score one or two 2 point rounds via a knockdown and/or battering Canelo from pillar to post in one or more of the stanzas, as a 10-8 Golovkin round would take some of the pressure off GGG.
GGG is being forced to win two in a row
Gennady Golovkin mighy the world's best boxer but defeating Canelo Alvarez in back-to-back fights is no easy task for anyone.

Canelo's handlers forced Team Golovkin to accept a rematch clause prior to the first fight knowing the odds Alvarez would win 1 of 2 versus Golovkin were much better than his winning a lone fight.


Essentially, we shouldn't be evaluating odds for Canelo vs Golovkin 2 as a single fight; We should be asking ourselves: What are the odds of GGG getting the better of Canelo in back-to-back fights?
And let’s not forget, Canelo has a great team and they will have made adjustments for the rematch based on what happened in the first fight. How many adjustments will GGG's team make? Given last month’s strategy seemed to work (despite the faulty verdict), they might not change their approach much and simply hope the scoring is better the second time around.
Canelo vs GGG odds
Most of us saw Golovkin 'defeat' a very game Canelo in what may have been the latter's most impressive performance as a pro. However, given the above intangibles, the betting lines should remain close for the rematch. In fact, don't be surprised if the odds are even at fight time.
While Golovkin should have been awarded last month's bout, there's no reason to make him a strong favorite in the rematch.
The rematch odds are well-placed thus far.

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